Jack Ciattarelli Faces Polling Blow in New Jersey Gubernatorial Race Against Mikie Sherrill
Republican Jack Ciattarelli was dealt a polling blow in the latest survey of New Jersey voters ahead of the gubernatorial race against Democratic Representative Mikie Sherrill later this year.
Why It Matters
New Jersey’s off-year gubernatorial election has key implications for both political parties in a state that shifted rightward in the 2024 presidential race.
Sherrill will face questions about whether she can win back voters who shifted toward Republicans in last year’s presidential race, such as young and Latino voters. Ciattarelli will be working to build off of President Donald Trump‘s progress in the state, which he lost by six points against Vice President Kamala Harris last November.
The Rutgers poll gives an independent look at the race after several internal polls have been released since the primary last month.
What to Know
Rutgers University Poll Shows Significant Lead for Sherrill
The latest poll from Rutgers University gave Sherrill, a moderate Democrat representing a suburban district, a significant lead over Ciattarelli.
Fifty-one percent of voters said they would back Sherrill, compared to 31 percent planning to back Ciattarelli, according to the survey. When leaners are included, Sherrill’s lead grew, with 56 percent supporting her and 35 percent saying they would cast their ballot for Ciattarelli.
Ashley Koning, assistant research professor and director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers, wrote in a polling write-up that early polls are a “baseline or a barometer of how voters are feeling in the moment – not as some crystal ball predicting the future four months from now.
“A lot can happen between now and November, and we know this gap will very likely narrow in the next several months. We only need to look back to 2021 to see how much a race can change throughout a cycle. Add to this an intense national political landscape that will, once again, surely play a role in the governor’s race here at home. Come November, what will matter is who actually turns out to vote,” she wrote.
Impact of Donald Trump and Historical Context
Fifty-two percent of respondents said Trump is a “major factor” in their vote, while 18 percent said he is a “minor” factor. Trump has endorsed Ciattarelli, who was the GOP nominee in the 2021 gubernatorial race.
The poll surveyed 621 adults from June 13 to June 16 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 5.4 percentage points.
In 2021, Ciattarelli narrowly lost to Democratic Governor Phil Murphy, who is not running again due to term limits.
New Jersey has been seen as a solidly Democratic state. But Trump pulled off a stronger showing in 2024, holding Harris to the Democrats‘ smallest margin in years. About 46 percent of Garden State voters cast their ballots for Trump, compared to 52 percent who supported Harris.
Republicans have not won the state at the presidential level since 1988 but have still performed well in some gubernatorial races. Republicans last won New Jersey’s governor race in 2013.
Republicans have not won a New Jersey gubernatorial race since 2013 and haven’t carried it on the presidential level since 1988. But Republicans see a chance to make more inroads with voters after Trump narrowed his margin in the state by 10 points. He lost it by 6 points in 2024, down from a 16-point loss in 2020 and 14 in 2016.
Other Polls Show Closer Race
Other polls have shown a closer race between Sherrill and Ciattarelli. An internal GOP poll from last month, conducted by National Research, showed that 45 percent of New Jersey voters are leaning toward Sherrill, and 42 percent are planning to back Ciattarelli. The poll surveyed 600 likely voters on June 11-12 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
What People Are Saying
Ashley Koning on Trump’s Influence
Koning wrote in the poll report: “Trump’s influence appears to be more of a benefit to Sherrill right now, given key groups more likely to support her are also more likely to claim the president is a factor in their vote choice, while those more supportive of Ciattarelli do not. While Trump’s endorsement may have helped in the primaries, these numbers are an early sign that the endorsement may play differently when it comes to the general.”
Ciattarelli Strategist Chris Russell’s Response
Ciattarelli strategist Chris Russell told The New Jersey Globe: “In 2021, the Monmouth Poll screwed up the New Jersey governor’s race so badly they got shut down. Eagleton is worse and next. From sampling adults instead of registered or likely voters to a turnout model that is pure fantasy, this poll is a steaming pile of s***.”
Kyle Kondik on the Race Outlook
Kyle Kondik of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, in a June 11 report: “The main reasons to favor Sherrill are that she has been a good electoral performer in the House—although she was not strongly pushed in her four general election races—and that she is a Democrat running in what is still a Democratic-leaning state in what should be at least a modestly Democratic-leaning environment with Donald Trump in the White House. That said, she is also running for a third straight Democratic gubernatorial term, so Ciattarelli can make an argument for change at the state level.”
What Happens Next
The New Jersey gubernatorial election is scheduled for November 4, 2025. The Cook Political Report classifies the race as Lean Democrat, meaning it is “considered competitive,” but Sherrill has “an advantage.”
